The Louisville Cardinals' football season has taken a 180-degree turn over the past two weeks. Once a contender for the College Football Playoff, the Cardinals have now lost two straight and face the possibility of finishing the regular season with four consecutive losses.
That turn also has affected UofL’s bowl chances. At 7-3, the Cards will still go bowling, but back-to-back losses to California and Clemson – both at home, no less – mean lower-tier bowls are now possible destinations.
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Louisville Football Bowl Projections: Odds For Cards’ 2025-26 Bowl
At BetKentucky.com, as part of our Kentucky college football betting season analysis, these are our exclusive odds on where the Cardinals will go bowling in 2025-26.
Bowl, Location
Conference Opponent
Odds
Percent Chance
Pinstripe Bowl, New York
Big Ten
+250
28.6%
Military Bowl, Annapolis, MD
American
+350
22.2%
Duke’s Mayo, Charlotte
SEC
+500
16.7%
Pop-Tarts, Orlando
Big 12
+700
12.5%
Other (Field)
+400
20.0%
These odds are exclusive to BetKentucky.com as part of our Kentucky sports betting coverage; they will be updated all season.
Louisville is tied for seventh in the ACC standings at 4-3. While the standings do not dictate where an ACC team will go bowling, the conference could have up to a dozen bowl eligible teams.
With the recent losses, and the fact they’re 2.5-point underdogs at SMU this Saturday according to bet365 Kentucky sportsbook, the chances have increased that the Cards will land in New York or Annapolis in late December.
If Louisville defeats SMU and beats Kentucky in the regular-season finale, UofL’s chances for going to Charlotte or Orlando should increase.
What Went Wrong For Louisville?
There are many teams that would gladly trade places with Louisville. The Cardinals are 7-3, and their three losses are by a combined seven points. Two of those defeats came in overtime.
Yet, even with a win over Miami – plus victories over Pittsburgh and James Madison that look better by the week – there is a feeling of disappointment in the Derby City.
The closeness of the losses, as well as the comeback nature of several victories, indicates self-inflicted errors have played a key role in the season. Consider the following:
In the 30-27 overtime loss to Virginia, the Cardinals allowed two turnovers to be returned for touchdowns
In the 29-26 OT loss to Cal, the Cardinals allowed a freshman quarterback to throw for 323 yards against one of the nation’s top defenses
In the 20-19 loss to Clemson, the Cardinals missed an extra point and two field goals inside of 50 yards, and they also committed 10 penalties, with many of those affecting field position at critical times.
Of all the issues that have plagued Louisville’s offense this season, outside of injuries to running backs Isaac Brown and Duke Watson, the biggest has been turnovers. Louisville is tied for 94th among FBS schools with 15 giveaways.
Opponents have scored 70 points off of those turnovers. That’s nearly a third of the points Louisville has allowed this season. UofL’s 21.5 points-per-game allowed is tied for 39th nationally.
When Louisville fans look back at this season, the turnovers will be the biggest “what if?” question they’ll ask as a team that was likely good enough to earn a College Football Playoff berth will probably play its final game in the Bronx or Annapolis.
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Steve is an accomplished, award-winning reporter with more than 20 years of experience covering gaming, sports, politics and business. He has written for the Associated Press, Reuters, The Louisville Courier Journal, The Center Square and numerous other publications. Based in Louisville, Ky., Steve has covered the expansion of sports betting in the U.S. and other gaming matters.
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