2023 Kentucky Derby Odds: Post Positions
Horses' Post Positions, the gate they are assigned from which they start the race, can have a big impact on whether or not they place. Here's where all eligible and scratched horses were posted, along with their latest odds, before the race began.
Here's an interactive breakdown of winners by post position since 1930. You can use the filter to see only the winners in the last 20 years or the last 10 years.
Per the chart above, Posts 5, 7 and 15 have produced the most all-time Kentucky Derby winners. Since 1930, posts 1-10 have produced 66 winners of the Kentucky Derby. However, there have been multiple efforts to improve and evolve the Kentucky Derby starting gates.
In the last 20 years, there's been an even 10-10 split between winners in Posts 1-10 and 11-20. In the last 10 years, Posts 11-20 actually have a slightly better win rate with six, compared to Posts 1-10's four. In 2020, Churchill Downs debuted a custom 20-stall starting gate to eliminate the wide gap between posts 14 and 15.
Reviewing 2023 Kentucky Derby Odds: Horses To Watch
Kentucky horse betting expert Steve Bittenbender was at Churchill Downs covering the 2023 Kentucky Derby, and here is what he had to say about this year's Kentucky Derby contenders before the race began:
Forte (4-1)
To the surprise of no one, Forte was installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby. Forte came to Churchill Downs having won his last five races, all graded stakes. The Todd Pletcher-trained colt raced on April 1 and needed a heroic effort down the stretch to win the Florida Derby.
Other Kentucky Derby Horses To Watch
Forte wasn't the only horse Pletcher brought to Louisville. He also saddled Tapit Trice, the Blue Grass Stakes winner, and Kingsbarns, the Louisiana Derby winner. Those two drew the fifth and sixth gates in the draw.
After Tapit Trice, the third choice on the morning line was Angel of Empire. The Brad Cox-trained colt who won the Arkansas Derby was 6-1.
Those are the only horses to which TwinSpires.com oddsmaker Mike Battaglia gave single-digit odds. He gave Derma Sotogake 8-1 odds, while Kingsbarns and Two Phil’s received 12-1 odds (Two Phil's is now 8-1).
Track handicappers set morning-line odds based on how they believe bettors will wager on the race. Unlike fixed-odds sports betting wagers, wagering on the Derby and other horse races is pari-mutuel, which means all bettors will receive payouts based on the odds when the race starts.
⭐️ Sportsbook Spotlight: BetMGM Kentucky Bonus Codes
Road to the 2023 Kentucky Derby
Forte brought the strongest credentials into the 149th Kentucky Derby, especially after winning the Florida Derby. The Santa Anita Derby has produced ten Derby winners, the most recent of which was Triple Crown hero Justify in 2018. Here are the most recent results from important races leading up to the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
Each year 20 horses have the chance to compete in the Kentucky Derby. To earn a spot in the starting gate, they must travel along the Road to the Kentucky Derby, a series of designated races at tracks across the country and around the world. Points are awarded to the top four finishers in each race. The 20 horses with the most points will earn a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, while some horses are considered "also eligible" in case starting-gate horses are scratched from the field.
UAE Derby, Louisiana Derby, Jeff Ruby Stakes, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial, Blue Grass, and Santa Anita Derby were all worth 100 points to the winner. The last of those has long been regarded as the West Coast's premier Kentucky Derby prep race, so much so that it has provided the Kentucky Derby winner on 10 occasions.
San Felipe Stakes winner Practical Move was trying to follow in the footsteps of Authentic who won the Santa Anita Grade 2 contest en route to winning the 2020 Kentucky Derby. Despite racing keenly through the first half of that contest, Practical Move cruised to the front around the inside and saw his race out powerfully to mark himself down as a major Kentucky Derby contender for trainer Tim Yakteen.
It is also worth noting that the winner of that Grade 1 prize has gone on to win the Kentucky Derby on three occasions since 2012.
Horses are generally trained to peak on the big day rather than in build-up races, which might explain why three of the last four Kentucky Derby winners had not previously won a Grade 1 race. These contenders have tended to be underestimated by anyone assessing the Kentucky Derby field and odds.
This grueling dirt race is all about class and only the best three-year-olds need apply. The ability to travel and quicken on dirt at the highest level is something very few horses can do, which is the hallmark of a Kentucky Derby winner. Having a dirt pedigree is crucial, as is having a pedigree that enables a horse to stay the ten-furlong trip off what is nearly always a strong pace.
⭐️ Sportsbook Spotlight: Caesars Sportsbook Kentucky Promo Codes
How To Place Bets on the Kentucky Derby
Here's how to place bets on the 2023 Kentucky Derby:
- ✅ Login or Sign Up with the legal sportsbook of your choice
- ✅ Choose Churchill Downs Race Track
- ✅ Select the Kentucky Derby race number (typically second to last on the card)
- ✅ Pick the horse that you want to bet on
- ✅ Select your desired wager
- ✅ Enter the dollar amount you would like to wager
- ✅ Place your bet
Win bets on the Kentucky Derby favorite was the safest betting strategy between 2013 and 2018, during which period every favorite went in. However, the trend has shifted in recent years, so much so that three of the last four winners have gone off 81/1, 269/10 and 65/1.
That suggests anyone assessing the latest 2023 Kentucky Derby odds should look further afield than the top of the market and tackle the race with more exotic bets than straightforward win wagers.
Don't forget to check out our list of the best Kentucky betting promo codes for the latest offers.
Kentucky Derby Futures Betting
Futures betting on the Kentucky Derby can be risky but it can also bring great rewards.
Getting a bigger price is all well and good, but the further in advance of the big day you place a futures wager, the bigger the scope for something to go wrong. If your wager doesn't make the race, for whatever reason, then the bet is down.
Kentucky Derby Betting Tips
For all of Forte's prominent class, the Fountain Of Youth Stakes has only produced two winners since 1980. However, 5 of the last 7 Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby, and Forte took home first place.
Run style is essential when assessing Kentucky Derby odds. 2022 winner Rich Strike came from off the pace but the opening quarter splits were the quickest in the race's history and the race was set up perfectly for a close.
However, nearly every other winner in the last decade has raced close to the pace and the ability to lay up handy, no matter the gate, is ultimately a crucial factor. Any horse not near the front by the home turn almost certainly has too much to do.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby Predictions
Now that the 2023 race has passed, we'll be looking ahead to the historic 150th Kentucky Derby in 2024! Check back soon for our early predictions.
Kentucky Derby Betting Glossary
- 🥇 Win: Simple, you need to bet the winner! If your horse dead heats, your stake is halved.
- 🥈 Place: Generally speaking, this is a top-three wager, although that drops to the top two in fields of 5-7 runners.
- 🥉 Show: A similar bet to the Place bet, your selection needs to finish third or better.
- 🎯 Exacta: One of the most popular wagers as it can often generate juicy returns. Two horses are selected and must finish first and second in the correct order.
- 🐎 Quinella: It's an Exacta bet with some insurance in that your two selections must finish first and second but in either order.
- 🏆 Trifecta: A bet that can return big bucks. You must select the first three horses home, in the correct order if the favorite bombs completely, winning Trifecta wagers can often pay huge returns, especially in Triple Crown races.
- 👑 Superfecta: Even bigger than a Trifecta, you need to go one place better by selecting the first FOUR horses home, in the correct order. This can pay mega sums.
- ✋ Super Hi-Five: A potentially life-changing bet because you must select the first FIVE horses home, in the correct order. Winnings are unlimited and a winning Super Hi-5 bet from the 2022 Kentucky Derby would have generated a near $150,000-1 payout.
⭐️ Sportsbook Spotlight: bet365 Kentucky Promo Codes
History of the Kentucky Derby
Sporting events don't get more historic than the Kentucky Derby. First run in 1875, it is officially the longest-running sports event in the United States. Only the best three-year-olds get to compete in a race dubbed "the most exciting two minutes in sports."
Staged at the historical Churchill Downs Racetrack, the race has been won by some of the sport's greats, including the likes of American Pharaoh, California Chrome, and Smarty Jones.
Bob Baffert is the most winning modern-day horse racing trainer with six victories in the famous contest under the Twin Spires, while 2018 winner Justify became the first horse since Apollo in well over one hundred years to win the Grade 1 prize without having raced as a two-year-old.
🐎 MORE: Best Jockeys in Kentucky Derby History
Kentucky Derby 2022 Results
History was made at Churchill Downs Racetrack in 2022, with Rich Strike becoming the biggest-priced winner of the Kentucky Derby in over 100 years.
Rich Strike was sent off an unconsidered 80-1 chance in Kentucky Derby odds. Still, jockey Sonny Leone captured the nation's hearts by coming from off the speed on the Eric Reed-trainer underdog, who was only entered into the race after another horse was scratched.
Notable Past Kentucky Derby Winners
Some of the biggest stars in horse racing have won the Kentucky Derby, including the great Secretariat who still holds the record (1:59.40 in 1973) for the fastest Derby success. Here are the fastest times in the history of the mile-and-a-quarter race:
American Pharaoh and Justify both went on to complete the Triple Crown for trainer Bob Baffert in the last decade, while 2014 winner California Chrome went on to earn the best part of $15 million in a stunning career. Bookmakers were the winners in 2022 though, because 80/1 outsider Rich Strike became the biggest-priced winner of the race since Doneail won at 91/1 in 1913.
⭐️ Sportsbook Spotlight: Fanatics Kentucky Promo Codes
More Horse Racing Betting
The Kentucky Derby is just the start to the most exciting racing season in the United States. There are several other major horse betting markets you can join after the Kentucky Derby. But, before you pick your wagers, check out our guide to the best horse race betting apps of the year.
Triple Crown Horse Racing
The Kentucky Derby winner nearly always goes on to attempt the fabled Triple Crown, which a horse achieves by winning the three biggest U.S. races. However, only 13 Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to earn a place as one of the greats of the sport. As more horses attempt this rare feat, you can follow Triple Crown odds as soon as they're released.
Preakness Stakes Horse Racing
The 2023 Preakness Stakes takes place at Pimlico Race Course in the weeks following the Kentucky Derby. No horse has won the Preakness Stakes by further than than the 11-and-a-half length success of Smarty Jones in 2004. Bob Baffert has won the race more than any other modern-day trainer but the eight-time winner hasn't got his hands on the Grade 1 prize since Justify scored en route to completing the Triple Crown in 2018. Follow Preakness Stakes odds in the lead up to 2024's race!
Belmont Stakes Horse Racing
The Belmont Stakes is the last and often the most difficult leg of the Triple Crown to win, primarily because the 1-mile, 4 furlong contest is a stiffer stamina test than both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. Follow Belmont Stakes odds in the lead up to 2024's race!
Kentucky Derby Odds FAQ
Mage (15-1) won the 2023 Kentucky Derby with a race time of 2:01.57. Two Phil's (9-1) placed in second, followed by the favorite heading into the race, Angel of Empire (4-1). Mage came in third place at the Preakness Stakes, which means he cannot win the Triple Crown this year.
Angel of Empire was the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, trading at 4.5, followed by Tapit trice at 5.5, UAE Derby winner Derma Sotogake at 8.0 and Two Phil's at 9.0. Every other horse in Kentucky Derby 2023 odds was 11.0 or greater.
The favorite to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby was Angel of Empire with odds of 9-2. Heavy favorite Forte was scratched on race morning, paving the way for another Todd Pletcher horse to take home the "Run for the Roses."
Forte, Practical Move, Skinner, Continuar, and Skinner were scratched from the 2023 Kentucky Derby. While a bruised foot was discovered on Forte, Practical Move & Skinner each had elevated temperatures leading up to raceday. Continuar was simply not conditioned to race, and Lord Miles was disqualified after trainer Saffie Joseph had two other horses die leading up to race day.
After early favorite Forte was scratched, Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire became favorites and were both trading at single-figure odds with some firms. Derma Sotogake (7-1) and Two Phil's (7-1) were also horses to watch that could easily have a say.
Kentucky Derby bets will be the talk of the horse racing community once they're live. All the big online sportsbooks and land-based casinos will have live odds on Kentucky Derby. You just need to pick your preferred sportsbook with your ideal odds and place a wager.
Top horse racing sites like TwinSpires, FanDuel and TVG will have Kentucky Derby futures available for 2024 soon, though many of the Derby betting markets won't open until race week. Horse racing futures bets are risky but the rewards can be much greater!
Bets of $100 on Forte at Kentucky Derby betting odds of 4.0 right now, the bet will return $400 ($300 win and $100 original stake). However, the betting window for the 2023 Kentucky Derby is now closed as the race is now over.
Author
Gavin Beech is a writer and contributor for BetKentucky.com and has worked in the betting industry for almost 20 years. Gavin is an experienced horse racing journalist, sports betting content writer and tipster. He has worked for some of the biggest online operators around, notably MailOnline and the Racing Post, where he is a regular on the Live Tipster slot.
