* The percentage represents the implied probability of a bet winning.
Who is favored to win the CFP National Championship?
Georgia is the Favorite to win the CFP National Championship again this year on the majority of college football betting sites. They'll be looking to become the second team to win three straight national titles. The Bulldogs did lose their veteran QB, Stetson Bennett, to the NFL draft but returned an absurd amount of elite talent on both sides of the ball.
Georgia Bulldogs Open As Heavy Favorites To Three-Peat
Kirby Smart's team is the far and away favorite to lift the trophy in January. Despite losing their veteran QB, the Bulldogs return some key starters and a ton of new talent. But at roughly +200 on a wager that won't cash for six months, the bigger question is, who has a legitimate chance to stop them?
The biggest returning talent for the Bulldogs is, without a doubt, star tight end Brock Bowers. A season ago, Bowers won the John Mackey Award; this year, he looks to become the first tight end ever to win it twice.
The most significant factors for me in a team with a legitimate chance to beat Georgia are return production, a proven winning record, and their path to the playoffs.
Kirby Smart's Georgia Bulldogs have maintained their place as heavy favorites since college football championship odds opened. Georgia is down as low as +210 at some shops after opening at +275 after last season. However, the team with the most significant movement since the opening odds has been the LSU Tigers, down as low as +900 after opening around +1900.
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Other Favorites For College Football National Championship
Since last year's national championship game, the Georgia Bulldogs have remained the favorite in college football championship odds. However, some significant movement has happened in the LSU Tigers futures market. LSU Opened the season at +1900 to win the national title. They currently sit as low as +1100 on some betting sites. Others rounding out the top of the odds board include the Alabama Crimson Tide, Ohio State Buckeyes, and Michigan Wolverines. All of which are listed below +1000 to win the national title.
Alabama (+600)
- Strengths: Nick Saban, Incoming talent, No longer the team to beat.
- Weaknesses: Departures, New Coordinators
For more than a decade, the Crimson Tide and Saban have been known for their ability to reload talent and turn coordinators into head coaches. But with the departure of three of the best players in the NFL draft and new coordinators on both sides of the ball, the hunted have become the hunter. Alabama still welcomes an abundance of young talent, and both coordinators have a wealth of experience. But the biggest question for the tide this year will be if one of their three potential quarterbacks can emerge to make this team competitive against LSU & Georgia.
Ohio State (+750)
- Strengths: skill position talent, improved defense, proven ability to win.
- Weaknesses: Quarterback, contenders in the Big 10.
The Buckeyes have, without a doubt, one of the top 3 receiver groups in the country. But with C.J. Stroud gone, there's some justified concern as to whether or not they'll be able to find success. Junior QB Kyle McCord will be stepping into some big shoes as he tries to do the one thing the Buckeyes couldn't a season ago: beat Georgia. The good news for McCord is that he'll have RB TreVeyon Henderson, who battled injuries a season ago, back along with a likely improved O-line. On defense, the Buckeyes struggled to stop the deep threat a season ago, but young talent in the secondary is expected to be a massive improvement.
However, Ohio State's most significant challenge will be that even if they have a fantastic season, they'll still need to overcome some serious contenders in the Big 10. Last season marked the first time since 2016 Ohio State had gone two years without winning the Big 10 conference championship. Both Michigan and Penn State are expected to be better than they were a season ago, and if this Buckeyes team can get past them, knocking off Georgia becomes much more realistic.
Florida State (+1700)
- Strengths: Return Production, Schedule, Talent
- Weaknesses: Staying Healthy, Staying Focused
The Seminoles rank third in return production and are the only serious contender in the top five. Sixth-year QB Jordan Travis's biggest struggle before last year was a lack of talent around him. He's now got an elite group of receivers and two elite tight ends. The defense has improved every year since Mike Norvell arrived and this year could be its peak, highlighted by one of the most dangerous secondaries in the league.
And while it remains to be seen whether it will be a good or bad thing, we'll know exactly how serious of a contender this Seminoles team is before October. Florida State opens the season against LSU and travels to Clemson on September 23rd. If they can come away from both with wins, their biggest challenge becomes staying focused and healthy against lesser competition for the rest of the season.
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College Football National Champion Contenders
The "best" four teams make the college football playoffs and history tells us that there will be four teams that are expected to make the playoffs (the favorites) each season. Another 4-6 are legitimate contenders that can challenge those favorites along with 1-4 longshots who can make the playoff if everything falls their way.
NCAAF National Championship Contenders
Michigan(+700)
- Strengths: Return production, run game.
- Weaknesses: Big Ten contenders.
The Wolverines return more than 75% of their production from a season ago, most notably one of the best backfield duos in the nation with Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy sometimes struggled through the air to end the season, and he lost two of his top three receivers from a season ago. Ronnie Wilson should be able to take the next step as the lead receiver, but the bigger question is if this Michigan team can beat out both Penn State and Ohio State for a spot in the playoff.
LSU (+1000)
- Strengths: Jayden Daniels, Harold Perkins Jr.
- Weaknesses: Schedule, run game, secondary
After taking the SEC by storm and winning the SEC West in year one, Brian Kelly looks to take the next step forward and lead his team to the college football playoff. The Tigers have two of the best players in the country on either side of the ball, with Quarterback Jayden Daniels and Linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. However, more than two elite talents are needed to win a championship. The Tigers struggled on the ground last year as Daniels led the team in rushing. On defense, Brian Kelly has done all he can to add depth to the secondary via the transfer portal, but they still need to find success against one of the more challenging schedules in college football.
Clemson (+1600)
- Strengths: Talent, improvement at OC.
- Weaknesses: Competition.
Dabo Sweeney and the Clemson Tigers have dominated the ACC for some time, winning seven of the last eight conference championship games. Their team is once again stacked with talent, as the defense is expected to remain one of the top five units in the nation. On offense, Cade Klubnik takes over full-time under center guided by first-year coordinator Garrett Riley, who led the dynamic TCU offense a season ago. The concern for Clemson this year is if the competition in the ACC is closing the gap; FSU, UNC, Notre Dame, and Duke all appear to have a chance at challenging the Tigers this season.
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Other CFP Contenders To Watch
Penn State (+2000)
- Strengths: Quarterback, momentum.
- Weaknesses: Big 10 contenders.
Coming off of an 11-2 season, the Nittany Lions seemed to be just one piece away from finally getting over the hump. Many believe quarterback Drew Allar will be that piece. Both Michigan and Ohio State present serious issues for Penn State, though. The Nittany Lions have not won the Big 10 since 2016. The last time they beat Michigan and Ohio State in the same season was 2008.
Texas (+2200)
- Strengths: Quarterback, Receivers.
- Weaknesses: Departures.
Quinn Ewers being back and healthy is the only thing more important to this offense than their improvements in the receiver room. But while they'll likely find success through the air, the run game that's made the offense so consistent since Sarkisian arrived took a massive hit in the offseason. With Bijan Robinson's departure, Texas is without a standout leadback. On the defensive side of the ball, Gary Patterson stepped down as a special assistant; his absence will surely be felt this season, exactly how much remains to be seen.
Washington (+4000)
- Strengths: return production, depth
- Weaknesses: Schedule, Secondary
Last season, the Huskies suffered numerous injuries on defense, which cost them games and a spot in the college football playoff. Kalen DeBoer has done all he can regarding talent down the roster to give his Heisman candidate QB Michael Penix all the help he can on defense. However, it's unlikely enough to turn one of the worst secondaries in college football into an elite group. Washington's offense will need to at least maintain the same output from a season ago if they want to have a chance at taking down USC and Oregon. Fortunately, the Huskies return 71% of their production from a season ago.
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College Football National Champion Longshots
When it comes to taking longshots on futures markets, the most important thing you can do is remain realistic. Is a +15000 longshot going to win the national championship? Likely not; they are +15000 for a reason. However, if injuries debilitate a top team, a favorite suffers some bad losses, or your longshot pulls off a miracle, which teams can you see finding their way into a conference title game at the very least to put you in a position to hedge?
NCAAF National Championship Longshots To Watch
Utah (+6000)
- Strengths: Return production, underrated.
- Weaknesses: Staying healthy, departures.
Despite being back-to-back Pac-12 champions and returning 76% of their production from a season ago, the Utes are fourth among Pac-12 teams in odds to win the college football national championship. Quarterback Cameron Rising is coming off of an injury, losing key receivers and his lead running back.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham has done a fantastic job reloading with talent, and I expect his team to again be in contention atop the Pac-12.
Oklahoma (+6500)
- Strengths: Coaching, improvements on defense.
- Weaknesses: wide receivers, offensive line.
The Oklahoma Sooners hope to end their time in the Big 12 on a high note before heading to the SEC. 2nd-year head coach Brent Venables is also looking to bounce back after struggling in year one. After giving up nearly 30 points a game a season ago, Venables has done everything he can to improve on defense, and I fully expect to see a step in the right direction. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel and OC Jeff Lebby have the potential to produce one of the most dynamic offenses in college football.
They'll need the offensive line to provide time and a slew of receivers from the transfer portal to work out.
Kentucky(+15000)
- Strengths: Overall offense
- Weaknesses: schedule.
The return of Liam Coen at OC and the addition of transfer QB Devin Leary can't be understated for the Kentucky Wildcats. The offense also returns their receiving core and adds an elite running back in Vanderbilt transfer Ray Davis. The O-line was the Cat's biggest issue a season ago, and while it won't be perfect, improvement is expected.
On defense, they remain one of the most underrated teams in the SEC, returning most starters and adding even more talent down the roster. Kentucky's problem is getting past the Georgia Bulldogs and their consecutive titles. To make matters worse, Kentucky's schedule this year will see them play Georgia on the road and host Alabama.
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Other CFP Longshots To Watch
UNC ( +10000)
- Strengths: pass attack.
- Weaknesses: offensive line, defense.
The Tar Heels started last year on fire but ended their season with a 4-game losing streak. Despite last year's two leading receivers being gone, Drake May should still be able to succeed in the passing game. That success will be reliant on the hopeful improvements to the O line.
There's nowhere to go but up for a defense that allowed 31 points a game last season, but North Carolina should see their most considerable improvement in the secondary.
Tulane (+25000)
- Strengths: Schedule.
- Weaknesses: Departures
Despite a tough non-conference slate, the departure of UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston to the Big 12 leaves Tulane as the team to beat in the AAC. The Green Wave will have some things to work out after losing key players at receiver and running back, along with their top five tacklers.
However, head coach Willie Fritz brings in a talented group from the transfer portal and the first-year class.
Iowa (+20000)
- Strengths: Defense, offensive improvements.
- Weaknesses: Big 10 contenders.
The Hawkeyes will remain one of the best defensive units in the country again this season. The Biggest improvement will come on offense with the addition of Michigan Transfer Cade McNamara. Getting past the gauntlet of competition that is Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State will be a massive challenge.
If the offense can be even half as productive as the Hawkeye defense, they'll have a chance against the top brass in the Big 10.
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CFP National Championship Odds To Bet
The futures market provides the best odds on the national title game. However, for some, holding a ticket for 5-6 months and waiting for the college football playoff and national title game is too long of a hold. Thankfully, plenty of other ways to wager on the national championship game exist.
Futures Bets
A futures bet is one of the most common ways to bet on the championship game. A futures bet on the college football playoff national championship is a bet on which team will win the championship game. Betting lines open on the following national championship game as soon as the previous year's college football playoff ends.
Moneyline Bets
A moneyline bet on the national championship game is the same as a moneyline wager on a regular season game. Betting on a team's moneyline is simply a wager on them to win the game. If you bet $435 on Georgia's moneyline last year at -435, you would have won $100.
Point Spread Bets
Betting on the point spread is betting on either team to win by the listed spread. In last year's title game, Georgia was a 12.5-point favorite, so if you bet on Georgia, you needed the Bulldogs to win by 13 or more. Conversely, if you bet on TCU, you needed the Horned Frogs to win outright or lose by less than 13. Georgia covered the spread easily, winning by 58.
Totals Bets
Betting on the total is a wager on whether or not both teams will combine to score more or less than the listed total. Last year's total was listed at 63, and with a final score of 65-7, a wager on the over would have been a winner.
Alternate Lines Bets
When you bet on an alternate line, you take a different number than what's listed on the spread or total in exchange for more points on an underdog or a higher odds line on the favorite. An example would be a game listing a team as a 7-point favorite at -110 and a total of 63 also at -110. Betting on an alternate line would be taking the favorite as a 10-point favorite at +130 or betting the over at 68 listed at +165.
Live Betting Odds
Placing a live bet is betting on a game after it has started. The spread, total, and odds are constantly changing when betting on a game live. This allows you to get a better line or odds on a game.
CFP National Championship History
Since the CFP national championship format began, no team has made more appearances or won more championships than the Alabama Crimson Tide. Clemson is the only school even to come close to their dominance. However, the SEC as a whole leads by a wide margin in both appearances and national championships, and the table below illustrates this dominance.
🏆 = College Football Playoff National Championship Wins
🎖️ = College Football Playoff Appearances
2023 College Football National Championship Game
Last year's college football championship game saw the TCU Horned Frogs take on the Georgia Bulldogs. The Bulldogs beat Ohio State in the Peach Bowl to earn their place in the national championship game, while TCU took down Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. The 2023 college football playoff national championship in SoFi Stadium saw Georgia favored by nearly two touchdowns over the Horned Frogs. Kirby Smart and his Bulldogs left little doubt about who the best team in the nation was as they won 65-7 to become national champions for the second year in a row.
How have odds for previous CFP National Championship winners matched up with their performance?
Only twice in the nine years since the CFP format began has the eventual Champion been listed higher than +1000 to win the title in the preseason.
What is the biggest upset in CFP National Championship history based on the pre-game odds?
The Biggest upset, both in future odds and game lines, came in the first edition of the CFP National Championship. Ohio State opened the season listed at +4000 to win the championship. In the national championship game, the Buckeyes upset the Oregon Ducks as 6-point underdogs.
Ezekiel Elliott was the driving force behind the Buckeyes' upset, rushing for 246 yards in the national championship game.
Which team had the longest odds to win the CFP National Championship?
Ohio State in 2014 is the longest-odds champion in CFP history, both in preseason future odds and outright game upset.
Stick with us for the Latest CFP National Championship Odds Updates
As previously mentioned, National Championship odds constantly fluctuate throughout the season. Check back here for more updates all season long on the current odds for the CFP national championship.
NCAAF National Championship Odds FAQ
The Georgia Bulldogs are listed as the favorite to win the CFP Championship. Kirby Smart's Bulldogs boast the best odds at +225, followed by Alabama and Ohio State at +700. Georgia is looking to become the first team to three-peat in the CFP era.
The favorites for the College Football Playoffs are Georgia, Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan. USC, LSU, and Florida State are considered contenders to watch as well.
Wagering on Futures odds can be done at one of the many legal sportsbooks if you are in a legal sports betting state. Sportsbooks offering odds on the CFP National Championship include Fanduel Sportsbook, BETMGM, and Draftkings.
Live betting on futures technically lasts all season long. The odds will fluctuate following the result of important games. For example, whoever wins the week one matchup between LSU and Florida State will likely see their listed odds of winning the CFP National Championship decrease.
CFP National Championship future odds are the odds on each team's chance to win the 2023 24 college football championship. Odds are based on a $100 wager. Therefore, a $100 bet on Texas to win the national championship at +2500 would pay out $2500.
A significant amount of factors go into determining the CFP National Championship odds. These factors include but are not limited to past performance, return production, new coaches & coordinators, strength of schedule, and the amount wagered on each team specifically by the betting public.
Odds for the CFP national championship can be found here and in any retail or mobile sportsbook, such as Fanduel sportsbook. One thing that's important to note is that National Championship odds will move throughout the season and sometimes be different at different sportsbooks. Make sure to shop around and ensure you get the best odds available.
Author
Keg is an NFL, CFB and college basketball betting expert in Kentucky with years of gambling experience. He'll dig into the latest odds and updates in the lead up to legal sports betting's launch in Kentucky.
