What are the Indianapolis Colts Playoff Chances?
The Colts playoff chances are +275, according to DraftKings Sportsbook Kentucky. Which is a considerable drop following their win over the Texans. Prior to beating Houston, the Colts were +450, and only four teams were listed at longer odds to make the playoffs. Currently nine teams have longer odds to make the playoffs: Jets, Giants, Patriots, Raiders, Texans, Broncos, Bears, Panthers, and Cardinals.
Implied probability is the conversion of betting odds into a percentage. Doing this takes into account the bookmaker margin to show the expected probability of a bet occurring. Knowing how to convert odds into probability is important because it helps you understand the value of a specific market. If you believe there's a higher chance of a bet winning than the implied probability, that represents value, and it is considered a good bet.
The equation for calculating implied probability differs between favorites and underdogs. Both are shown below:
- Negative odds / (Negative odds + 100) * 100 = implied probability
- 100 / (Positive Odds + 100) * 100 = implied Probability
Here is an example of using both with the Colts chances to make and miss the playoffs:
- To miss playoffs: (-370) 370/ (370 + 100) * 100 = 86.666%
- To make playoffs: (+275) 100/ (275+100) * 100 = 18.18%
Putting this implied probability against trusted true probability is how you find value in betting lines. It's important to remember true probability is not exact; true probability is what you or a source you trust believes the bet's win probability is. Predictive models are used to calculate true probability. Models like the New York Times postseason Simulator and ESPN's FPI are a few options to find true probability.
Indianapolis is currently listed with an FPI of -4.6 by ESPN. FPI shows the Colts' true probability of making the playoffs at 20.7% and winning the division at 13.5%. Using FPI as our true probability here shows there is no value in the Colts' current odds of making the playoffs or winning the division.
Reminder:
- true probability > implied probability = value
- true probability < implied probability = not value.
Odds on the Colts to make the playoffs would have value at +400 using FPI as our reference of true probability.
- (+400) 100/ (400 +100) * 100 = 20%
- FPI true probability: 20.7%
However, if you agree with the ESPN FPI and believe there is a 13.5% chance the Colts win the division, there is value in their odds to win the AFC South. It is early in the season though and waiting to see how things shake out for the Titans could be more beneficial than locking a number in now. Not to mention the two consecutive games we've seen Anthony Richardson have to leave due to injury.
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Indianapolis Colts Week-by-Week Playoff Chances
The Colts' current odds to make the playoffs sit at +275 (26.7% implied probability), per DraftKings.
I will be updating the Colts' current odds to make the playoffs throughout the NFL regular season.
Indianapolis Colts Schedule and Betting Lines
After being listed at +7 just before Week 1 and then moving to +8.5 against the Ravens prior to Week 2, the Colts now move down to +7.5 against Baltimore. However, if Richardson is confirmed out, I would expect them to become bigger underdogs the closer we get to the game.
How do the Colts stack up against the rest of the NFL? Track the latest updated Super Bowl Odds.
Colts Playoff Chances: Key Updates September 2023
I will be tracking breaking news and developments this offseason that could impact the Colts' playoff chances and listing them below.
- 📅 Sept. 19: Colts sign RB Trey Sermon to the practice squad.
- 📅 Sept. 19: QB Anthony Richardson and center Ryan Kelly both placed in concussion protocol. Both are questionable for Sunday against the Ravens.
- 📅 Aug. 29: RB Jonathan Taylor will start the season on the PUP list, guaranteeing he'll miss the first 4 games of the season and indicating a trade is not imminent.
- 📅 Aug. 27: C Danny Pinter is out for the season with a broken ankle.
- 📅 Aug. 21: The Colts allow Taylor to seek a trade.
- 📅 Aug. 19: The Colts sign WR D.J. Montgomery.
- 📅 Aug. 15: Rookie QB Anthony Richardson is named the Colts starting QB.
- 📅 July 31: Colts injuries continue to be an issue as RB Zach Moss suffers a broken arm, sidelining him for at least six weeks.
- 📅 July 29: Taylor requests a trade from the Colts after meeting with owner Jim Irsay.
- 📅 April 27: QB Anthony Richardson is drafted fourth overall by the Indianapolis Colts.
I will continue to add to this list as more Colts news breaks, so bookmark this page to keep up to date.
Week 2 Recap: Colts vs Texans
The Colts have been considerably better than many expected through the first two weeks of the season. Indianapolis was able to hold their own against the Jags despite the loss, and a win never seemed in doubt against the Texans. However, Anthony Richardson left the game for the second week in a row.
After Richardson left the game, QB Gardner Minshew came in. Unlike Week 1, the game was not on the line, the Colts were up 14-7. Minshew managed the game effectively, completing 82% of his passes for 171 yards and 1 touchdown.
This week against the Ravens will be a serious challenge for the Colts, specifically without Richardson. Minshew has performed well in big games in the past but the difference maker this week will be the Colts defense.
Against the Texans five different Colts players recorded QB pressures. Facing off against one of the most agile and elusive quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson will undoubtedly be a much more difficult challenge. If the Colts can limit Jackson's mobility, Richardson's absence might not be the drop off its expected to be. Realistically though now is not the time to lock up wagers on the Colts to make the playoffs or win the Super Bowl.
🔥 MORE: Colts vs Texans Odds for Week 18
Key Contributors Toward Colts Playoff Chances
I think it's obvious the biggest contributor to the Colts success and chances of making the playoffs is Anthony Richardson. The Colts still had a serious chance to win the game against the Jags until Richardson left in the fourth quarter with knee and ankle injuries. Now only two games into his NFL career, Richardson has had to leave both due to injury issues. If the Colts believe Richardson can be their franchise QB, at what point do they sit him to protect him long-term?
The second biggest contributor for the Colts is more than just one man; it's the entire Colts defense. Against Houston the Colts defense continued to shine, combining for 6 sacks and 10 total tackles for loss. The Texans also logged three fumbles, losing two of them. No element of the game will be bigger than the defense this week and their ability to limit Lamar Jackson, currently fifth in odds to win the MVP (+1200) who is completing 74.5% of his passes and averaging 46 rush yards per game.
The Colts will need to work on their mistakes if they don't want to them to effect their playoff chances. Indianapolis had 3 turnovers and 4 penalties totaling 35 yards against Jacksonville. Things only got worse against the Texans as they had 8 penalties totaling 42 yards.
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Where Can I Bet on the Indianapolis Colts to Make the Playoffs?
If you're located in a state that already has legal sports betting, you can bet on the Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs at any legal Kentucky sportsbook, such as DraftKings, Fanduel, BetMGM, or Caesars. For those located in the state, retail sports betting is officially live with Kentucky mobile sports betting set to follow on Sept. 28. The current locations offering retail sports betting are:
- 📍 Churchill Downs
- 📍 Derby City Gaming
- 📍 Mint Gaming Hall Cumberland
- 📍 Ellis Park
- 📍 Red Mile
- 📍 Newport Racing and Gaming
- 📍 Turfway Park
- 📍 Oak Grove Racing & Gaming
All four NFL betting apps mentioned above are expected to be available in Kentucky along with Circa Sports, bet365, Fanatics, and ESPN Bet.
To sign up for a sportsbook in Kentucky when mobile wagering begins, the first step will be to download the app you want to sign up for:
- ✅ Create a new account, including personal information such as name, address, email, and date of birth. Choose a username and password.
- ✅ Fund your account. Most sportsbooks will offer a variety of ways to deposit money, including but not limited to Debit/Credit card, PayPal, online banking, Venmo, ACH bank transfer, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- ✅ Place your bet! Navigate to the sports section, select the specific bet market and type you are interested in, enter the amount you want to wager, and confirm your bet.
This process will vary slightly depending on which sportsbook you use but should be somewhat similar across all sportsbooks.
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Looking Ahead: Colts Playoff Picture
There's definitely some kinks that need to be worked out on this Colts team. New concerns with this team continue to arise, the biggest being if Anthony Richardson can stay healthy and even complete a game for the Colts.
Indianapolis has one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL, and while Gardner Minshew is serviceable quarterback, losing Richardson would be detrimental. If Richardson cannot stay healthy, the Colts playoff chances will take a massive hit.
Do the Colts Have a Chance to Make the Playoffs?
The Colts still have a chance to make the playoffs. According to ESPN's FPI rankings, Indianapolis currently has a 20.7% chance to make the playoffs. At DraftKings, their implied probability to make the playoffs is 20.76%.
The Colts playoff chances have only improved since the season started. But with Anthony Richardson expected to be out this week against the third ranked team in ESPN's FPI, a loss will likely see those odds become longer for the first time this season.
Are the Indianapolis Colts Out of the Playoffs?
No team, including the Colts, is out of the playoffs. Just two games into the season, no one is eliminated from the playoff picture yet. With their win over the Texans, the Colts have avoided a massive trend for teams hoping to make the playoffs.
Since 1990, 270 teams have started their season 0-2; only 31 of those teams have made the playoffs. Even worse, since 2002, 99 teams have started 0-3, and only one has made the playoffs.
Where Do the Indianapolis Colts Rank in the AFC South?
After Week 2, the Colts are 1-1 in the division and in second place behind only the Jaguars. Both the Titans and the Texans are 0-1 in the AFC South, tied for third. Comparing the Titans vs Colts odds to win the division, Tennessee still leads Indianapolis at +240. Houston is currently +1300 to win the division title but will likely see their odds increase with a loss to Jacksonville this week.
The 1-0 Jacksonville Jaguars lead the division and saw their odds to make the playoffs increase from -190 a week ago to -225 following their loss to Kansas City.
The Jags will take on the Texans this week and are likely to put Houston at 0-3 in the NFL and 0-2 in the division. An 0-3 start will put the Texans almost completely out of the playoff picture. Even with the expanded playoff bracket, there's only 7 eligible teams. The Titans, meanwhile, will face the Browns, who will be on a short week coming off of Monday Night Football without lead running back Nick Chubb.
Where Do the Indianapolis Colts Rank in the AFC Standings?
When it comes to AFC standings, there isn't a wide margin yet. However, the Colts rank 15th in odds to win the conference after two games and are fourth in points scored among AFC teams. The Colts moved to seventh in points allowed, an impressive increase from third a week ago.
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Where Do the Indianapolis Colts Rank in the AFC Wild Card Race?
With it being just one week into the season, there is no clear separation yet between top playoff contenders, wild card teams, and those out of the playoffs.
However, the Colts would be on the outside looking in at the postseason if based on today's odds.
Can the Indianapolis Colts Get the No. 1 Seed?
Technically the Colts are still eligible to secure the No. 1 seed in the AFC with 16 games left in the season. However it would be a longshot. The Chiefs still remain the favorite to secure the No. 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs. To clinch first place in the AFC, the Colts will first have to get past their two biggest threats in the AFC South: the Titans and the Jaguars.
When it comes to AFC conference play, they have the benefit of avoiding two of the best teams in the NFL in Kansas City and the Buffalo Bills.
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Who to Root for if You're a Indianapolis Colts Fan
Heading into Week 3, Colts fans biggest advantage would be a miracle from the Houston Texans. Houston will take on the AFC South-leading Jags and are currently a 9.5-point underdog. If the Jaguars were to lose, they would become tied for first place in the division with Indianapolis.
The Browns will be another team to keep an eye on as they square off against the Titans. If Indianapolis can upset the Ravens, handing them a conference loss, and move to 2-1 in the AFC, it could provide a massive shake up to the AFC standings. Beating Baltimore this week is the most direct path for the Colts into the playoff picture and could be huge later in the season should it be a tight race to clinch a wild card spot.
🔥 MORE: Colts vs Jaguars Odds for Week 6
Indianapolis Colts Postseason Outlook and Predictions
There is reason to hope that this Colts team will be better than many previously anticipated. But the playoffs are still a stretch for Indianapolis.
Their biggest upside is still that they have one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL. Unfortunately, if they want to find themselves in the playoff picture, the most likely scenario will involve the Jaguars facing some adversity. There is a chance the Colts could still make the playoffs as a wild-card team if Jacksonville wins the AFC South, but they'll need even more help from other teams in the AFC standings in that scenario.
If Anthony Richardson and the defense can continue to progress throughout the season, I believe it will be a tight race for second place in the AFC South at the very least. The newest concern however is Richardson's ability to remain Healthy.
First-year head coach Shane Steichen will need to progress as well. Much like his quarterback there have been some clear rookie mishaps but nothing they can't fix as we go further into the season.
The X-factor for Indianapolis is what they happens with Jonathan Taylor. Taylor began the season on the PUP list and is not eligible to return to the team until Week 5 of the NFL season. A return to the Indianapolis backfield could be the difference in the Colts clinching a spot in the playoff picture. But the more likely scenario is Indianapolis trading Taylor for players and/or picks that could be just as valuable to this young team getting in the playoffs in the future.
Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds FAQ
Indianapolis current odds to make the playoffs sit at +275, per DraftKings Sportsbook. This places their implied probability at 26.7%, a considerable improvement from a week ago. However, it still gives them the 10th-longest odds of any team in the NFL and the sixth longest in the AFC.
After Week 2, no team is currently out of the NFL playoff picture. With each team having 15 games left to play there is still a long season ahead of us. However, Indianapolis is undoubtedly a longshot to make the playoffs but, mathematically, they still have a chance.
While they are one of the biggest longshots in the NFL, the Indianapolis Colts absolutely have a chance to make the playoffs. With the Jaguars currently favorites (-225) to win the AFC South, the Colts' most likely playoff scenario would be as a wild-card team.
If you are currently located in a legal sports betting state, you can use one of the many legal sportsbooks such as DraftKings, Fanduel, Caesars, BetMGM, and others to bet on the Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs. If you are in Kentucky, retail locations are now open, and mobile wagering goes live September 28.
Author
Keg is an NFL, CFB and college basketball betting expert in Kentucky with years of gambling experience. He'll dig into the latest odds and updates in the lead up to legal sports betting's launch in Kentucky.
