Louisville vs Duke Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?
Louisville is favored to win at most Kentucky betting apps. The Cardinals are coming off a bye week and are at home, where they’re unbeaten this season. Uncertainty surrounding QB Riley Leonard's has also likely factored into the spread.
|🏈 Spread||UL -4.5 (110)|
|💰 Moneyline||UL -192, Duke +160|
|✅ Last Verified:||November 28, 2023|
Louisville was a 7-point favorite in its most recent ACC game, meaning it had to win by eight or more points for a spread bet on the Cardinals to win. Louisville’s total in its last ACC game was 45, meaning the combined points scored by both teams had total at least 46 for an over bet to pay off, or 44 for an under wager to win.
The moneyline on Louisville in its most recent ACC game was -270, meaning it took a $270 bet to win $100 on the Cardinals.
Louisville Chances To Win vs Duke
Coach Jeff Brohm has transformed the Louisville offense into a unit averaging over 36 points per game. But the Cardinals were done in by mistakes in their lone loss at Pitt, fumbling the ball five times and allowing an interception returned 86 yards for a touchdown. The Cardinals will need to minimize turnovers and capitalize on red zone chances against a Duke team with the best scoring defense in the ACC.
How Louisville Wins vs Duke
Louisville beats Duke by stuffing the run that’s been the mainstay of the Blue Devils’ offense. The Blue Devils rush for nearly 200 yards per game, best in the ACC, but Louisville presents a stout front seven limiting opponents to 97 yards per outing. Duke is not built to play from behind—placing the onus on quarterback Jack Plummer and a Cardinals offense averaging 466 yards per game to force the Blue Devils out of their comfort zone.
- 📈 Strength: Louisville is the more balanced, explosive offense, one capable of winning both low-scoring grinders and track meets
- 📉 Weakness: The Cardinals occasionally appear mistake-prone, and their offense isn’t built to eat clock and keep Duke off the field
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Duke Chances To Win vs Louisville
Duke is a team that does most everything right: the Blue Devils dominate the ground game, make few mistakes, and have a great defense.
How Duke Wins vs Louisville
Cardinals QB Jack Plummer can be prone to interceptions—his eight picks rank second in the ACC—and Duke excels at converting turnovers into points. Duke beats Louisville by establishing the run, dominating the clock, and taking an early lead it never relinquishes.
- 📈 Strength: Duke’s 198.5 rushing yards per game allow it to maintain possession and keep opposing offenses off the field
- 📉 Weakness: A team built on rushing and defense isn’t meant to play from behind, averaging just 189 pass yards per game
Louisville Duke Betting Odds
The Cardinals are a 4.5-point favorite at home vs. Duke. The Cardinals have faced a series of single-digit spreads this season, hinting at odds that slightly favor Louisville over the Blue Devils at L&N Stadium.
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Louisville Duke Odds: What The Spread Tells Us
Duke has performed well against the spread, covering in four of its first five games against FBS opponents. The Cardinals have been more inconsistent, facing four single-digit spreads and covering in one of them, including an outright loss as a seven-point favorite at Pittsburgh their last time out. Louisville is 2-4 against the spread overall against FBS opponents, but has covered in both ACC games at home.
Louisville Duke Odds: What The Moneyline Tells Us
Because it’s been favored in most of its games, Louisville has been a negative value play for moneyline bettors. The lone exception came Oct. 7, when the Cardinals downed Notre Dame as a +195 home underdog.
Bettors face another negative moneyline as Louisville opens as a home favorite over Duke, which upset Clemson as a +355 underdog to open this season.
Louisville Duke Prop Bets
Top props to look for will be totals on passing yards and touchdowns by Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer, who has tossed 13 TDs and averages 271 yards per game through the air. Bettors should also look for a rushing totals prop on Louisville's Jawhar Jordan, who ranks second in the ACC at 94.43 rush yards per game. Also look for anytime touchdown scoring props on Jordan (who has eight TDs this season) and Cardinals receiver Jamari Thrash (who has six).
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History of Louisville Duke Games
Louisville has never lost to Duke, although the teams have played just three times. The Cardinals won the first matchup 40-3 in 2002, then won 24-14 in 2016, and most recently claimed a 62-22 victory in 2021. This season’s matchup is one of the biggest ever between the programs.
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Louisville Record vs Duke
Louisville’s wins over Duke are notable for the players involved. Former Cardinals QB Dave Ragone, now offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons, passed for two touchdowns in the 2002 victory. The 2016 game matched Duke QB Daniel Jones, now with the New York Giants, against Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, Heisman Trophy winner and current starter for the Baltimore Ravens.
Former Louisville QB Malik Cunningham, now with the New England Patriots, passed for five touchdowns in the Cardinals’ rout of Duke in 2021. Riley Leonard, then a freshman, came off the bench in that game to complete 13 of 13 pass attempts for 99 yards, and rush for 70 yards and a touchdown for the Blue Devils.
How To Watch Louisville vs Duke
The television network airing Louisville vs. Duke won’t be known until the Monday before the game. ACC football games air on ABC, ESPN networks (which includes ACC Network) and The CW.
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Louisville vs Duke Predictions
The Cardinals were humbled by Pitt their last time out. The lessons learned from that game, and the fact that Louisville is coming off a bye week, certainly tip things in the Cards’ favor, especially with uncertainty surrounding the injury status of Duke’s quarterback. Expect the Blue Devils to control the clock early, and the Cardinals to pull away late to a 31-24 victory.
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Louisville vs Duke FAQs
Although betting odds won’t be released until the Sunday before the game at the earliest, expect Louisville to be a slight point-spread favorite over the Blue Devils at home. Riley Leonard's injury status could also influence odds for the game.
Sports bettors can bet on Louisville-Duke by visiting any of the legal sportsbooks operating in Kentucky. Sports bettors in Kentucky must be at least 18 years old (although some sportsbooks may have higher age limits) and physically within the state to wager legally.
Louisville’s all-time record against Duke is 3-0. The Cardinals previously defeated the Blue Devils 62-22 in Durham in 2021; 24-14 in Louisville in 2016; and 40-3 in Durham in 2002. This is the first game between the teams since sports betting was legalized in Kentucky.
Louisville plays Duke on Oct. 28, 2023. Following the Duke game, Louisville travels to Blacksburg, Va., for a contest at Virginia Tech on Saturday, Nov. 4. The Blue Devils meanwhile have a short week after the Louisville game, next hosting Wake Forest on the night of Thursday, Nov. 2.
Louisville won the program’s first game against Duke in 2002, when the Cardinals prevailed 40-3 in Durham. Louisville that season was a member of Conference USA, and still over a decade away from joining the Blue Devils in the ACC—which finally occurred in 2014.