Do The 4-5 Colts Still Have A Chance To Make The Postseason?

Do The 4-5 Colts Still Have A Chance To Make The Postseason?
Fact Checked by Nate Hamilton

After Sunday’s 27-13 victory over the Carolina Panthers, the Indianapolis Colts find themselves inching back toward the NFL’s middle class with a 4-5 record.  But what does recent history say about the Colts playoff chances given they are still one game under .500 over halfway into the season?  To answer this question utilized to discover how NFL teams have finished after starting the season 4-5 over the last ten years.  These are the final results of the 58 teams to start 4-5 since the 2013 season.

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Performance of 4-5 NFL Teams Since 2013

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Situation Teams Percentage
Making The Playoffs 16 27.6%
Win Wild Card Round 9 15.5%
Win Divisional Round 3 5.2%
Win Conference Championship 0 0.0%
Win Super Bowl 0 0.0%
*Rounded to nearest whole number
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4-5 Start Not Ideal for Colts' Postseason Hopes

Considering barely over a quarter of 4-5 teams have made the playoffs over the past decade and the fact that Indianapolis sits in third place in the AFC South it makes sense that the best Kentucky sportsbook apps are bearish on the Colts postseason chances right now. DraftKings Sportsbook puts the odds of the Colts making the playoffs at +380, twelfth among AFC teams.

With only seven playoff spots available in the conference and eight teams in the AFC currently possessing a winning record (plus three others at .500), Indianapolis faces an uphill climb to get back into the postseason for the first time since 2020.  If the Colts end up in the playoffs, it will likely come as a Wild Card team as the Jacksonville Jaguars look to be in control of the division with a two-game lead over the Houston Texans and a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Colts.  Further complicating things for Indianapolis, the Colts have already lost both of their games to the Jaguars this season, meaning Jacksonville will control the tiebreaker were the teams to finish with the same record.

Indianapolis’s offense continues to roll along even with backup quarterback Garnder Minshew taking over for prized rookie Anthony Richardson after his season-ending shoulder injury versus Tennessee last month. The Colts rank seventh in the NFL in scoring offense at 25.8 points per game and are the only team in the league to put up 20 or more points in every game this season.

However, for as potent as the offense has been, Indianapolis’s defense has been just as porous, giving up 26.9 points per game, the fifth-worst mark in the league.  To make matters worse, the Colts have struggled equally against the pass and the run, ranking in the bottom ten defending both categories, though the team is coming off its best defensive performance of the season after holding the Panthers to just 198 yards over the weekend.

Working in Indianapolis’s favor, the Colts schedule puts them in a position to potentially make a move up the standings as Tankathon rates their remaining strength of schedule as the league’s fifth easiest.  Their eight future opponents hold just a .448 winning percentage on the season with only week 14 and 15 foes Cincinnati and Pittsburgh presently above .500.

Indianapolis’s quest toward the postseason continues on Sunday morning at 9:30 ET in Frankfurt, Germany where the Colts will take on the 2-7 New England Patriots as 1.5-point favorites according to DraftKings sportsbook Kentucky. The sportsbook currently lists the Colts projected win total for the year at over/under 7.5 wins, with -150 odds on the over and +125 odds on the under.

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Josh Markowitz is a freelance writer for He is a lifelong sports fan with an emphasis on basketball, football, baseball and the scouting/evaluation process. A graduate of Elon University's School of Communications, Josh also has experience in television production.

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